One tankful of the latest craze in alternative energy could feed
one person for a year, Lester Brown tells Fortune.
(Fortune Magazine) -- The growing myth that corn is a cure-all
for our energy woes is leading us toward a potentially dangerous
global fight for food. While crop-based ethanol -the latest
craze in alternative energy - promises a guilt-free way to keep
our gas tanks full, the reality is that overuse of our
agricultural resources could have consequences even more drastic
than, say, being deprived of our SUVs. It could leave much of
the world hungry.
We are facing an epic competition between
the 800 million motorists who want to protect their mobility and
the two billion poorest people in the world who simply want to
survive. In effect, supermarkets and service stations are now
competing for the same resources.
This year cars, not people, will claim most of the increase
in world grain consumption. The problem is simple: It takes a
whole lot of agricultural produce to create a modest amount of
automotive fuel.
The grain required to fill a 25-gallon SUV gas tank with
ethanol, for instance, could feed one person for a year. If
today's entire U.S. grain harvest were converted into fuel for
cars, it would still satisfy less than one-sixth of U.S. demand.
Worldwide increase in grain consumption
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that world grain
consumption will increase by 20 million tons this year, roughly
1%. Of that, 14 million tons will be used to fuel cars in the
U.S., leaving only six million tons to cover the world's growing
food needs.
Already commodity prices are rising. Sugar prices have
doubled over the past 18 months (driven in part by Brazil's use
of sugar cane for fuel), and world corn and wheat prices are up
one-fourth so far this year.
For the world's poorest people, many of whom spend half or
more of their income on food, rising grain prices can quickly
become life threatening.
Once stimulated solely by government subsidies, biofuel
production is now being driven largely by the runaway price of
oil. Many food commodities, including corn, wheat, rice,
soybeans, and sugar cane, can be converted into fuel; thus the
food and energy economies are beginning to merge.
The market is setting the price for farm commodities at their
oil-equivalent value. As the price of oil climbs, so will the
price of food.
In some U.S. Cornbelt states, ethanol distilleries are taking
over the corn supply. In Iowa, 25 ethanol plants are operating,
four are under construction, and another 26 are planned.
Iowa State University economist Bob Wisner observes that if
all those plants are built, distilleries would use the entire
Iowa corn harvest. In South Dakota, ethanol distilleries are
already claiming over half that state's crop.
The key to lessening demand for grain is to commercialize
ethanol production from cellulosic materials such as switchgrass
or poplar trees, a prospect that is at least five years away.
Malaysia, the leading exporter of palm oil, is emerging as
the biofuel leader in Asia. But after approving 32 biodiesel
refineries within the past 15 months, it recently suspended
further licensing while it assesses the adequacy of its palm oil
supplies. Fast-rising global demand for palm oil for both food
and biodiesel purposes, coupled with rising domestic needs, has
the government concerned that there will not be enough to go
around.
Less costly alternatives
There are truly guilt-free alternatives to using food-based
fuels. The equivalent of the 3% of U.S. automotive fuel supplies
coming from ethanol could be achieved several times over - and
at a fraction of the cost - by raising auto fuel-efficiency
standards by 20%. (Unfortunately Detroit has resisted this,
preferring to produce flex-fuel vehicles that will burn either
gasoline or ethanol.)
Or what if we shifted to gas-electric hybrid plug-in cars
over the next decade, powering short-distance driving, such as
the daily commute or grocery shopping, with electricity?
By investing not in hundreds of wind farms, as we now are,
but rather in thousands of them to feed cheap electricity into
the grid, the U.S. could have cars running primarily on wind
energy, and at the gasoline equivalent of less than $1 a gallon.
Clearly, solutions exist. The world desperately needs a
strategy to deal with the emerging food-fuel battle. As the
world's leading grain producer and exporter, as well as its
largest producer of ethanol, the U.S. is in the driver's seat.
Lester R. Brown is president of the Earth Policy Institute
and author of "Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a
Civilization in Trouble." 